Business Performance and Expectations
To assess the current and expected near-term performance of the Maryland economy, businesses were surveyed on their performance over the past year and expected performance over the coming year in terms of revenues, employment, and the markets they serve. Businesses were asked whether their market, revenues, and employment had expanded or contracted over the past year and whether they expect each to grow or contract in the coming year. Because of the time sensitivity of the survey findings, data are presented on a quarterly basis.
Current Performance
Maryland businesses reported strong revenue and employment growth over the past year. Fifty-one percent of the responding firms reported revenue growth over the past year and 37 percent reported adding jobs while 13 percent reported declines in revenue and 10 percent reported declines in employment over the past year.
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Firms in the Baltimore metropolitan area counties reported the strongest growth in revenues and employment, with 56 percent reporting revenue growth and 42 percent reporting employment growth. Firms in Baltimore City reported the weakest growth, with 45 percent reporting revenue growth and 31 percent reporting employment growth.
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Firms in the fourth quarter reported the strongest revenue growth with 56 percent of firms reporting revenue growth. After an initial decline from 55 percent of firms reporting revenue growth in the pilot period (2017: Q4 and 2018: Q1), the percentage of firms reporting revenue growth increased over the year. Similarly, after starting in the pilot period at 39 percent, 44 percent of firms in the fourth quarter reported employment growth.
Future Performance
The Maryland firms surveyed are optimistic about the future and reported that they expect their market, revenues, and employment to grow in the coming year. The responding firms reported stronger expectations for revenue and employment growth in the coming year than their experience over the past year. Two-thirds (67 percent) of responding firms expect the market they serve to expand in the coming year, 69 percent expect their revenues to grow, and 52 percent expect to add jobs.
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Overall, firms in the Baltimore metropolitan area and Washington suburbs are the most optimistic, with 68 percent of Baltimore metro area firms reporting that they expected the market they serve to expand in the coming year, 72 percent expect their revenues to grow, and 54 percent expect to add jobs; 67 percent of suburban Washington area firms reported that they expect the market they serve to expand in the coming year, 69 percent expect their revenues to grow, and 54 percent expect to add jobs.
Expectations for the coming year generally improved over the year, with expectations for market growth generally strengthening over the year and expectations for employment growth remaining strong throughout the year. The percentage of firms reporting that they expected the market they serve to expand in the coming year grew from 66 percent in the pilot period (2017: Q4 and 2018: Q1) to 72 percent in the fourth quarter. The percentage of firms reporting that they expect their revenues to grow increased from 68 percent to 74 percent respectively, with about half or more of firms reporting that they expect add jobs in the coming year throughout the year.
Table 1: Compared to last year, how have your company's sales expanded or contracted? (Q10)
Table 2: Compared to last year, how has your company's employment expanded or contracted? (Q11)
Table 3: Do you expect the market for your product or service to expand or contract next year? (Q12)
Table 4: How do you see your company's revenues changing in the next year? (Q13)
Table 5: How do You See your Company's Employment Changing in the Next Year? (Q14)
